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Moore's Law is the empirical observation made in 1965 that the number of transistors on an integrated circuit for minimum component cost doubles every 24 months. more...

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It is attributed to Gordon E. Moore (born 1929), a co-founder of Intel.

Earliest forms

The term Moore's Law has been coined by Carver Mead around 1970. Moore's original statement can be found in his publication "Cramming more components onto integrated circuits", Electronics Magazine 19 April 1965:

Under the assumption that chip "complexity" is proportional to the number of transistors, regardless of what they do, the law has largely held the test of time to date. However, one could argue that the per-transistor complexity is less in large RAM cache arrays than in execution units. From this perspective, the validity of one formulation of Moore's Law may be more questionable.

Gordon Moore's observation was not named a "law" by Moore himself, but by the Caltech professor, VLSI pioneer, and entrepreneur Carver Mead.

Moore may have heard Douglas Engelbart, a co-inventor of today's mechanical computer mouse, discuss the projected downscaling of integrated circuit size in a 1960 lecture. In 1975, Moore projected a doubling only every two years. He is adamant that he himself never said "every 18 months", but that is how it has been quoted. The SEMATECH roadmap follows a 24 month cycle.

In April 2005, Intel offered $10,000 to purchase a copy of the original Electronics Magazine.

Understanding Moore's Law

Moore's law is not about just the density of transistors that can be achieved, but about the density of transistors at which the cost per transistor is the lowest. As more transistors are made on a chip the cost to make each transistor reduces but the chance that the chip will not work due to a defect rises. If the rising cost of discarded non working chips is balanced against the reducing cost per transistor of larger chips, then as Moore observed in 1965 there is a number of transistors or complexity at which "a minimum cost" is achieved. He further observed that as transistors were made smaller through advances in photolithography this number would increase "a rate of roughly a factor of two per year" .

Formulations of Moore's Law

The most popular formulation is of the doubling of the number of transistors on integrated circuits every 18 months. At the end of the 1970s, Moore's Law became known as the limit for the number of transistors on the most complex chips. However, it is also common to cite Moore's Law to refer to the rapidly continuing advance in computing power per unit cost, because increase in transistor count is also a rough measure of computer processing power.

Read more at Wikipedia.org